For the first time in nearly two decades of tracking international sentiment, the geopolitical landscape of North America is undergoing a profound and potentially historic transformation. A new report from the Pew Research Center’s Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey reveals a stark departure from long-standing regional norms: both Canada and Mexico now view China more favorably than they do their shared neighbor and traditional ally, the United States.
This shift represents a significant erosion of American soft power in its own backyard. While the U.S. has historically enjoyed high favorability ratings in Ottawa and Mexico City, the 2026 data indicates that the "North American consensus" is fracturing.
Main Facts: The New Geopolitical Calculus
The 2026 survey, conducted between February and April, paints a sobering picture for U.S. diplomatic standing. In Canada, 44% of adults now hold a favorable view of China, while only 33% express the same sentiment toward the United States. This represents a complete reversal from as recently as 2024, when the U.S. held a significant lead in favorability.
In Mexico, the trend is even more pronounced. China currently enjoys a 59% favorability rating, compared to 40% for the United States. This gap is not merely a transient fluctuation; it reflects a long-term trend of disillusionment with U.S. policy, particularly regarding regional stability and perceived interference.
The data also extends to leadership. Confidence in both Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump remains low in both countries. However, when asked about their confidence in these leaders to "do the right thing regarding world affairs," Xi outpaces Trump in both nations. In Canada, 35% of respondents express confidence in Xi, compared to just 20% for Trump. The divide is wider in Mexico, where 35% trust the Chinese leader against a mere 11% for his U.S. counterpart.
A Chronological Look at Shifting Loyalties
To understand the gravity of the 2026 findings, one must look at the historical trajectory of these relationships.
- 2002–2009: The Era of Stability. At the turn of the millennium, the U.S. was viewed as the clear partner of choice. In 2002, 71% of Canadians held a favorable view of the U.S., while Chinese favorability remained low or unmeasured. Mexico showed similar, if slightly more moderate, pro-American sentiment.
- 2015–2016: The Peak of U.S. Favorability. The U.S. reached a modern peak in Canadian public opinion in 2015, with a 68% favorability rating. Even then, the seeds of change were visible as China began to steadily increase its cultural and economic influence.
- 2017–2020: The First Wave of Volatility. During the first Trump administration, favorability for the U.S. began to oscillate wildly. Canadians’ views of the U.S. dropped to 40% in 2018, and Mexicans’ views dipped to 29% in 2017. During this period, some initial signs of "China-favorable" spikes began to appear in Mexican polling.
- 2021–2024: The Post-Pandemic Correction. Following a brief rebound in U.S. favorability during the Biden administration, public opinion began to slide again as the global political environment darkened. By 2024, the U.S. still held a commanding lead in Canada (54% vs 21%), but the momentum for a pivot was building.
- 2026: The New Reality. The current survey marks the cross-over point where China has overtaken the U.S. in both countries’ favorability rankings, effectively ending a two-decade dominance of U.S. influence in the public consciousness of its closest neighbors.
Supporting Data: Age, Ideology, and The "Freedom Gap"
The survey provides a granular look at who is driving this change. A generational divide is one of the most striking findings. In both Canada and Mexico, younger adults (ages 18–34) are significantly more likely to view China favorably than their older counterparts.
In Mexico, 70% of those under 35 hold a positive view of China, compared to 44% of those over 50. In Canada, the gap is equally stark, with 61% of younger adults viewing China favorably against 39% of the older demographic.
Furthermore, the concept of "respect for personal freedoms" has become a central point of contention. The survey reveals a shocking "freedom gap." Only 34% of Canadians and 20% of Mexicans believe the U.S. government respects the personal freedoms of its people. Interestingly, while confidence in China’s human rights record remains low, the relative perception of the U.S. has fallen so far that it is now competing with China for the bottom spot in these metrics.
In Mexico, the shift is particularly dramatic: for the first time, Mexicans are more likely to express belief that the Chinese government respects its people’s freedoms than they are to say the same about the U.S. government.
Implications for Global Stability
The implications of this shift are profound for North American trade, security, and diplomatic strategy. The U.S. has long relied on the premise that its neighbors, tied by the USMCA trade agreement and deep cultural integration, would remain steadfast allies.
However, the perception of U.S. "interference" is rising. In Mexico, 73% of adults say the U.S. interferes in the affairs of other countries, compared to only 45% who say the same of China. Moreover, nearly three-in-four Mexicans believe the U.S. does not take Mexican interests into account when formulating its international policy.
This has resulted in China being viewed as a "reliable partner" by 58% of Mexicans, nearly double the 34% who view the U.S. in that same light. If these numbers reflect a permanent hardening of public opinion, the U.S. faces a significant hurdle in maintaining a united front on issues ranging from supply chain security to continental defense.
Official Responses and The Road Ahead
While official government channels in Ottawa and Washington have yet to issue a formal "white paper" response to these specific findings, analysts are sounding the alarm. The Pew Research Center noted that the change is consistent with a broader, global trend of re-evaluating the U.S.-China balance of power.
Policy experts argue that the U.S. has failed to counter the narrative of "American instability." By being named both a "top ally" and a "top threat" in previous surveys, the U.S. has projected a level of unpredictability that is causing its neighbors to seek alternative economic and diplomatic alignments.
The 2026 data serves as a wake-up call. If the U.S. hopes to regain the trust of its neighbors, it must address the core of these findings: the perception that it is an unreliable, interfering, and increasingly illiberal actor. Whether the U.S. can reverse this trend will depend on its ability to demonstrate long-term stability and a renewed commitment to the interests of its partners.
As we look toward the remainder of the decade, the "North American neighborhood" looks very different than it did twenty years ago. China is no longer a distant player; it is an increasingly preferred, or at the very least, accepted alternative in the eyes of the citizens of Canada and Mexico. The challenge for U.S. policymakers is no longer just about competing with China in the Pacific—it is about competing with China on their own borders.
Methodology Note
This analysis is based on the Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey, which involved 1,020 interviews in Canada and 1,017 in Mexico, conducted between February 12 and April 14, 2026. The results are weighted to be representative of the adult population in each country. Further details on the methodology and the full set of survey questions are available via the Pew Research Center’s website.
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